New England FIRST District Championship - Burns Division presented by GlobalFoundries

Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

345.98 – 320.13

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

339 – 322

Prediction correct · off by 4.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 535.3 ±9.8

236Techno-Ticks

Season APEX 165.4Event APEX 153.7Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9710Discovery Polybotz

Season APEX 109Event APEX 37.53Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2370IBOTS

Season APEX 260.9Event APEX 154.75Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 467.9 ±9.8

131CHAOS

Season APEX 268.3Event APEX 180.49Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3623The Robomingos

Season APEX 82.4Event APEX 52.35Rank 44Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

173RAGE Robotics ⚙️

Season APEX 117.2Event APEX 87.29Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 236, 9710, 2370

/ 100 compat

Projected

346 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 236, 9710, 2370

Auto

96.0 28%

Teleop

153.5 45%

Endgame

90.6 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 131, 3623, 173

/ 100 compat

Projected

320.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 131, 3623, 173

Auto

23.5 7%

Teleop

197.3 63%

Endgame

94.4 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.21 · Blue 1.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score346pts

Blue projected score320.1pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample232alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 34%, blue 30%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 25.9
Score range: 260–406
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 661 vs event baseline 333.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

535.3Season APEX467.9

96Auto23.5

153.5Teleop197.3

90.6Endgame94.4

82Consistency111

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	31
teleop	193	152
endgame	86	124
foul	0	15
total	339	322

Result

Final score

339 – 322

Prediction correct · off by 4.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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