New England FIRST District Championship - Burns Division presented by GlobalFoundries

Qualification · Qualification 66

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

348.39 – 265.02

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

486 – 328

Prediction correct · off by 100.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 563.4 ±9.8

3146GRANBY GRUNTS

Season APEX 128.1Event APEX 85.81Rank 37Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1073The Force Team

Season APEX 253.4Event APEX 153.3Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

78AIR STRIKE

Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 109.28Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 482.1 ±9.8

155The TechnoNuts

Season APEX 94.6Event APEX 13.87Rank 49Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

172Northern Force

Season APEX 122.8Event APEX 56.83Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5813Morpheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 194.32Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3146, 1073, 78

/ 100 compat

Projected

348.4 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3146, 1073, 78

Auto

64.4 19%

Teleop

177.5 51%

Endgame

103.4 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 76%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 155, 172, 5813

/ 100 compat

Projected

265 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 155, 172, 5813

Auto

47.9 18%

Teleop

126.2 48%

Endgame

88.9 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 76%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.61 · Blue 1.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score348.4pts

Blue projected score265pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample232alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 76%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 36%, blue 30%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 83.4
Score range: 205–408
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 814 vs event baseline 332.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

563.4Season APEX482.1

64.4Auto47.9

177.5Teleop126.2

103.4Endgame88.9

162Consistency131

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	112	51
teleop	225	191
endgame	134	56
foul	15	30
total	486	328

Result

Final score

486 – 328

Prediction correct · off by 100.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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