New England FIRST District Championship - Burns Division presented by GlobalFoundries

Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

362.53 – 383.46

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

334 – 249

Prediction missed · off by 81.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 522.7 ±9.4

11175Tidal Shock

Season APEX 98Event APEX 51.68Rank 33Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 267.22Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10910The Outlaws

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 43.63Rank 36Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 641.6 ±9.3

151Tough Techs

Season APEX 125.8Event APEX 65.38Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1058PVC Pirates

Season APEX 247.1Event APEX 141.62Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6324The Blue Devils

Season APEX 268.7Event APEX 176.46Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11175, 1768, 10910

/ 100 compat

Projected

362.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11175, 1768, 10910

Auto

80.8 23%

Teleop

193.8 55%

Endgame

75.2 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 151, 1058, 6324

/ 100 compat

Projected

383.5 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 151, 1058, 6324

Auto

73.8 19%

Teleop

214.6 57%

Endgame

91.0 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.79 · Blue 2.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score362.5pts

Blue projected score383.5pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample232alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 34%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -20.9
Score range: 303–443
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 583 vs event baseline 334.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

522.7Season APEX641.6

80.8Auto73.8

193.8Teleop214.6

75.2Endgame91

82Consistency70

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	66	82
teleop	165	144
endgame	93	23
foul	10	0
total	334	249

Result

Final score

334 – 249

Prediction missed · off by 81.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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