Qualification · Qualification 63
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
362.18 – 474.28
20%80%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
404 – 294
Prediction missed · off by 111 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 568.5 ±9.8
Season APEX 149.7Event APEX 56.98Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 301.4Event APEX 209.69Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 117.4Event APEX 95.51Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 649.1 ±9.4
Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 111.7Rank 40Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 82Event APEX 46.77Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 329.7Event APEX 315.81Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4311, 195, 175
66
/ 100 compatProjected
362.2 pts
~1.4 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 4311, 195, 175
Auto
69.5 20%
Teleop
145.1 42%
Endgame
135.0 39%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 63%
Supercharged: 34%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4905, 3654, 125
82
/ 100 compatProjected
474.3 pts
~2.6 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 4905, 3654, 125
Auto
58.3 12%
Teleop
283.4 60%
Endgame
129.3 27%
Strengths
- · 125 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 63%
Supercharged: 34%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.39 · Blue 2.64
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score362.2pts
Blue projected score474.3pts
Red win probability20%
Event bonus sample232alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 63%, blue 70%
Supercharged bonusred 34%, blue 32%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -112.1
- Score range
- 302–534
- Upset likelihood
- 20%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
568.5Season APEX649.1
69.5Auto58.3
145.1Teleop283.4
135Endgame129.3
82Consistency140
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 95 | 72 |
| teleop | 212 | 154 |
| endgame | 97 | 68 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 404 | 294 |
Result
Final score
404 – 294
Prediction missed · off by 111 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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