New England FIRST District Championship - Burns Division presented by GlobalFoundries

Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

387.25 – 228.96

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

542 – 309

Prediction correct · off by 117.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 624.2 ±9.8

133B.E.R.T.

Season APEX 209.2Event APEX 162.14Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10254Regal Seagulls

Season APEX 269Event APEX 135.94Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8709Pathfinder Tech

Season APEX 146Event APEX 89.17Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 479.9 ±9.8

10063S.C.R.A.P.

Season APEX 107.5Event APEX 44.04Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4925The Resistance

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 15.83Rank 47Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2067Apple Pi

Season APEX 260Event APEX 169.09Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 133, 10254, 8709

/ 100 compat

Projected

387.3 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 133, 10254, 8709

Auto

74.6 20%

Teleop

220.5 59%

Endgame

78.0 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 38%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10063, 4925, 2067

/ 100 compat

Projected

229 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10063, 4925, 2067

Auto

31.1 13%

Teleop

120.2 52%

Endgame

79.5 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 38%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.84 · Blue 1.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score387.3pts

Blue projected score229pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample232alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 38%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 158.3
Score range: 169–447
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 851 vs event baseline 332.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

624.2Season APEX479.9

74.6Auto31.1

220.5Teleop120.2

78Endgame79.5

112Consistency86

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	108	61
teleop	363	120
endgame	71	128
foul	0	0
total	542	309

Result

Final score

542 – 309

Prediction correct · off by 117.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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