New England FIRST District Championship - Burns Division presented by GlobalFoundries

Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

253.74 – 274.71

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

350 – 274

Prediction missed · off by 48.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 415.8 ±10.4

1512The Big Red

Season APEX 135.2Event APEX 88.12Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

20794H ALARM Robotics

Season APEX 180.7Event APEX 117.52Rank 29Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

509Red Storm

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 48.1Rank 31Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 467.1 ±9.8

2713Red Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 272.1Event APEX 156.59Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8708Ov3R1y K0Mp13X

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 29.99Rank 50Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

173RAGE Robotics ⚙️

Season APEX 117.2Event APEX 88.13Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1512, 2079, 509

/ 100 compat

Projected

253.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1512, 2079, 509

Auto

43.4 18%

Teleop

142.6 59%

Endgame

54.8 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2713, 8708, 173

/ 100 compat

Projected

274.7 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2713, 8708, 173

Auto

35.0 13%

Teleop

156.8 57%

Endgame

82.6 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.78 · Blue 2.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score253.7pts

Blue projected score274.7pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample232alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 27%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -21
Score range: 193–336
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 624 vs event baseline 339.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

415.8Season APEX467.1

43.4Auto35

142.6Teleop156.8

54.8Endgame82.6

102Consistency96

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	63
teleop	212	144
endgame	72	52
foul	15	15
total	350	274

Result

Final score

350 – 274

Prediction missed · off by 48.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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