New England FIRST District Championship - Burns Division presented by GlobalFoundries

Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

321.72 – 354.62

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

325 – 294

Prediction missed · off by 31.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 514.1 ±9.8

571Paragon Robotics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 204.37Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

230Gaelhawks

Season APEX 126.6Event APEX 67.82Rank 35Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7127LongMetal Robotics

Season APEX 124.7Event APEX 49.53Rank 34Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 603.5 ±9.8

5000HAMMERHEADS

A+

Season APEX 321.8Event APEX 204.42Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5112The Gongoliers

Season APEX 153Event APEX 51.87Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

58The Riot Crew

Season APEX 128.7Event APEX 98.33Rank 45Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 571, 230, 7127

/ 100 compat

Projected

321.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 571, 230, 7127

Auto

26.8 9%

Teleop

195.0 63%

Endgame

86.9 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5000, 5112, 58

/ 100 compat

Projected

354.6 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5000, 5112, 58

Auto

57.3 16%

Teleop

171.3 49%

Endgame

124.5 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.75 · Blue 2.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score321.7pts

Blue projected score354.6pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample232alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 31%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -32.9
Score range: 262–415
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 619 vs event baseline 333.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

514.1Season APEX603.5

26.8Auto57.3

195Teleop171.3

86.9Endgame124.5

120Consistency123

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	52
teleop	198	148
endgame	83	94
foul	0	0
total	325	294

Result

Final score

325 – 294

Prediction missed · off by 31.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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