New England FIRST District Championship - Burns Division presented by GlobalFoundries

Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

512.95 – 320.08

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

549 – 398

Prediction correct · off by 57 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 714.6 ±9.3

5000HAMMERHEADS

A+

Season APEX 321.8Event APEX 206.13Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5813Morpheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 207.6Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3146GRANBY GRUNTS

Season APEX 128.1Event APEX 99.22Rank 37Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 408.4 ±10.4

3654TechTigers

Season APEX 82Event APEX 32.41Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

133B.E.R.T.

Season APEX 209.2Event APEX 198.8Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

173RAGE Robotics ⚙️

Season APEX 117.2Event APEX 88.87Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5000, 5813, 3146

/ 100 compat

Projected

513 pts

~2.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5000, 5813, 3146

Auto

77.1 15%

Teleop

279.8 55%

Endgame

155.4 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 38%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3654, 133, 173

/ 100 compat

Projected

320.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3654, 133, 173

Auto

72.4 23%

Teleop

178.2 56%

Endgame

66.1 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 38%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.93 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score513pts

Blue projected score320.1pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample232alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 38%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 192.9
Score range: 255–578
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 947 vs event baseline 361.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

714.6Season APEX408.4

77.1Auto72.4

279.8Teleop178.2

155.4Endgame66.1

112Consistency137

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	66
teleop	307	215
endgame	183	117
foul	0	0
total	549	398

Result

Final score

549 – 398

Prediction correct · off by 57 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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