New England FIRST District Championship - Burns Division presented by GlobalFoundries

Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

185.35 – 410.97

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

256 – 441

Prediction correct · off by 50.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 465 ±9.8

78AIR STRIKE

Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 83.52Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9644NEIA Robotics

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 72.78Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9710Discovery Polybotz

Season APEX 109Event APEX 29.05Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 552.7 ±9.4

2876DevilBotz

Season APEX 112.3Event APEX 72.03Rank 43Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1729Team Inconceivable!

Season APEX 123.9Event APEX 81.91Rank 41Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 257.03Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 78, 9644, 9710

/ 100 compat

Projected

185.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 78, 9644, 9710

Auto

58.6 32%

Teleop

107.7 59%

Endgame

16.5 9%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2876, 1729, 1768

/ 100 compat

Projected

411 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2876, 1729, 1768

Auto

72.5 18%

Teleop

228.6 56%

Endgame

103.8 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.06 · Blue 2.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score185.4pts

Blue projected score411pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample232alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 29%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -225.6
Score range: 125–471
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 697 vs event baseline 332.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

465Season APEX552.7

58.6Auto72.5

107.7Teleop228.6

16.5Endgame103.8

96Consistency121

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	73	85
teleop	126	244
endgame	52	77
foul	5	35
total	256	441

Result

Final score

256 – 441

Prediction correct · off by 50.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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