New England FIRST District Championship - Burns Division presented by GlobalFoundries

Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

208.51 – 367.24

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

302 – 279

Prediction missed · off by 90.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 434.9 ±9.8

5813Morpheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 173.27Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3958Schrodinger's Cat

Season APEX 77Event APEX 4.02Rank 48Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8567Team Ultraviolet

Season APEX 93.2Event APEX 31.22Rank 46Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 564.4 ±9.8

4311Swampscott Currents

Season APEX 149.7Event APEX 68.08Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8709Pathfinder Tech

Season APEX 146Event APEX 104.84Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6324The Blue Devils

Season APEX 268.7Event APEX 194.32Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5813, 3958, 8567

/ 100 compat

Projected

208.5 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5813, 3958, 8567

Auto

11.3 6%

Teleop

97.6 48%

Endgame

92.9 46%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4311, 8709, 6324

/ 100 compat

Projected

367.2 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4311, 8709, 6324

Auto

70.3 19%

Teleop

209.2 58%

Endgame

81.5 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.04 · Blue 2.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score208.5pts

Blue projected score367.2pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample232alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 32%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -158.7
Score range: 149–427
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 581 vs event baseline 335.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

434.9Season APEX564.4

11.3Auto70.3

97.6Teleop209.2

92.9Endgame81.5

176Consistency98

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	77
teleop	172	99
endgame	77	68
foul	0	35
total	302	279

Result

Final score

302 – 279

Prediction missed · off by 90.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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