New England FIRST District Championship - Burns Division presented by GlobalFoundries

Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

427.5 – 319.8

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

359 – 338

Prediction correct · off by 43.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 716.7 ±9.3

2713Red Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 272.1Event APEX 161.69Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5000HAMMERHEADS

A+

Season APEX 321.8Event APEX 209.91Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

172Northern Force

Season APEX 122.8Event APEX 55.9Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 527.9 ±9.8

230Gaelhawks

Season APEX 126.6Event APEX 63.02Rank 35Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

509Red Storm

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 46.32Rank 31Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

195CyberKnights

A+

Season APEX 301.4Event APEX 210.46Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2713, 5000, 172

/ 100 compat

Projected

427.5 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2713, 5000, 172

Auto

71.5 17%

Teleop

241.0 56%

Endgame

118.0 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 230, 509, 195

/ 100 compat

Projected

319.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 230, 509, 195

Auto

67.0 21%

Teleop

159.2 50%

Endgame

90.4 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.66 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score427.5pts

Blue projected score319.8pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample232alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 35%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 107.7
Score range: 259–489
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 697 vs event baseline 338.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

716.7Season APEX527.9

71.5Auto67

241Teleop159.2

118Endgame90.4

115Consistency127

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	41
teleop	213	197
endgame	69	80
foul	15	20
total	359	338

Result

Final score

359 – 338

Prediction correct · off by 43.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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