Qualification · Qualification 53
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
386.81 – 332.15
66%34%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
346 – 174
Prediction correct · off by 99.5 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 503.9 ±9.8
Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 208.01Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 117.2Event APEX 91.78Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 123.9Event APEX 87.02Rank 41Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 528.9 ±9.8
Season APEX 135.2Event APEX 103.39Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 124.7Event APEX 76.04Rank 34Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 269Event APEX 152.72Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 571, 173, 1729
71
/ 100 compatProjected
386.8 pts
~2.2 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 571, 173, 1729
Auto
43.7 12%
Teleop
230.3 61%
Endgame
102.7 27%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 61%
Supercharged: 26%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 1512, 7127, 10254
64
/ 100 compatProjected
332.2 pts
~1.7 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 1512, 7127, 10254
Auto
52.0 16%
Teleop
163.2 50%
Endgame
111.5 34%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 61%
Supercharged: 26%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.22 · Blue 1.72
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score386.8pts
Blue projected score332.2pts
Red win probability66%
Event bonus sample232alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 61%, blue 68%
Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 35%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 54.7
- Score range
- 271–448
- Upset likelihood
- 34%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
503.9Season APEX528.9
43.7Auto52
230.3Teleop163.2
102.7Endgame111.5
140Consistency96
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 63 | 21 |
| teleop | 227 | 114 |
| endgame | 56 | 39 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 346 | 174 |
Result
Final score
346 – 174
Prediction correct · off by 99.5 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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