New England FIRST District Championship - Burns Division presented by GlobalFoundries

Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

409.22 – 263.87

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

437 – 379

Prediction correct · off by 71.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 564.5 ±9.4

151Tough Techs

Season APEX 125.8Event APEX 51.97Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

125NUTRONs

A+

Season APEX 329.7Event APEX 325.01Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9710Discovery Polybotz

Season APEX 109Event APEX 32.24Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 643.8 ±9.8

5112The Gongoliers

Season APEX 153Event APEX 43.76Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4905Andromeda One

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 96.33Rank 40Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1073The Force Team

Season APEX 253.4Event APEX 123.78Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 151, 125, 9710

/ 100 compat

Projected

409.2 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 151, 125, 9710

Auto

66.5 16%

Teleop

250.2 62%

Endgame

89.3 22%

Strengths

· 125 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 39%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5112, 4905, 1073

/ 100 compat

Projected

263.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5112, 4905, 1073

Auto

54.7 21%

Teleop

157.0 61%

Endgame

45.2 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 39%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.79 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score409.2pts

Blue projected score263.9pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample232alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 76%

Supercharged bonusred 39%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 145.4
Score range: 203–470
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 816 vs event baseline 337.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

564.5Season APEX643.8

66.5Auto54.7

250.2Teleop157

89.3Endgame45.2

106Consistency159

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	86	65
teleop	236	153
endgame	115	141
foul	0	20
total	437	379

Result

Final score

437 – 379

Prediction correct · off by 71.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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