New England FIRST District Championship - Burns Division presented by GlobalFoundries

Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

133.66 – 354.45

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

100 – 337

Prediction correct · off by 25.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 300.6 ±10.4

509Red Storm

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 39.18Rank 31Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8567Team Ultraviolet

Season APEX 93.2Event APEX 31.65Rank 46Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10063S.C.R.A.P.

Season APEX 107.5Event APEX 62.83Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 508.7 ±9.8

175Buzz Robotics

Season APEX 117.4Event APEX 116.91Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5813Morpheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 168.21Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

230Gaelhawks

Season APEX 126.6Event APEX 69.33Rank 35Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 509, 8567, 10063

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 509, 8567, 10063

Auto

0.3 0%

Teleop

59.8 48%

Endgame

65.6 52%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 175, 5813, 230

/ 100 compat

Projected

354.5 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 175, 5813, 230

Auto

38.3 11%

Teleop

166.5 47%

Endgame

150.9 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.98 · Blue 2.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score133.7pts

Blue projected score354.5pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample232alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 30%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -220.8
Score range: 73–415
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 437 vs event baseline 338.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

300.6Season APEX508.7

0.3Auto38.3

59.8Teleop166.5

65.6Endgame150.9

171Consistency120

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	17
teleop	55	199
endgame	22	121
foul	0	0
total	100	337

Result

Final score

100 – 337

Prediction correct · off by 25.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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