New England FIRST District Championship - Burns Division presented by GlobalFoundries

Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

403.56 – 367.88

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

358 – 473

Prediction missed · off by 75.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 677.1 ±9.3

8724Mayhem

Season APEX 234.3Event APEX 126.79Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

78AIR STRIKE

Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 151.96Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2370IBOTS

Season APEX 260.9Event APEX 124.81Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 463.5 ±10.4

175Buzz Robotics

Season APEX 117.4Event APEX 58.45Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

236Techno-Ticks

Season APEX 165.4Event APEX 172.16Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

20794H ALARM Robotics

Season APEX 180.7Event APEX 137.27Rank 29Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8724, 78, 2370

/ 100 compat

Projected

403.6 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8724, 78, 2370

Auto

78.1 19%

Teleop

207.3 52%

Endgame

116.8 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 77%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 175, 236, 2079

/ 100 compat

Projected

367.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 175, 236, 2079

Auto

80.9 22%

Teleop

181.7 50%

Endgame

100.2 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 77%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.35 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score403.6pts

Blue projected score367.9pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample232alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 77%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 34%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 35.7
Score range: 303–469
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 831 vs event baseline 361.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

677.1Season APEX463.5

78.1Auto80.9

207.3Teleop181.7

116.8Endgame100.2

140Consistency83

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	84	72
teleop	154	235
endgame	120	166
foul	0	0
total	358	473

Result

Final score

358 – 473

Prediction missed · off by 75.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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