New England FIRST District Championship - Burns Division presented by GlobalFoundries

Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

363.69 – 384.25

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

389 – 380

Prediction missed · off by 14.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 558.5 ±8.8

155The TechnoNuts

Season APEX 94.6Event APEX 27.29Rank 49Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

348Norwell Robotics

Season APEX 147.4Event APEX 97.78Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 238.62Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 695.1 ±9.3

4925The Resistance

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 24.15Rank 47Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2370IBOTS

Season APEX 260.9Event APEX 141.35Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5000HAMMERHEADS

A+

Season APEX 321.8Event APEX 218.75Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 155, 348, 1768

/ 100 compat

Projected

363.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 155, 348, 1768

Auto

69.0 19%

Teleop

180.5 50%

Endgame

115.1 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4925, 2370, 5000

/ 100 compat

Projected

384.3 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4925, 2370, 5000

Auto

70.7 19%

Teleop

181.0 49%

Endgame

121.2 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.82 · Blue 2.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score363.7pts

Blue projected score384.3pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample232alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 34%, blue 34%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -20.6
Score range: 303–445
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 769 vs event baseline 337.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

558.5Season APEX695.1

69Auto70.7

180.5Teleop181

115.1Endgame121.2

149Consistency168

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	69	66
teleop	197	203
endgame	113	111
foul	10	0
total	389	380

Result

Final score

389 – 380

Prediction missed · off by 14.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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