New England FIRST District Championship - Burns Division presented by GlobalFoundries

Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

444.75 – 361.84

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

340 – 492

Prediction missed · off by 117.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 608.9 ±9.3

8708Ov3R1y K0Mp13X

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 38.3Rank 50Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

131CHAOS

Season APEX 268.3Event APEX 183.68Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

571Paragon Robotics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 222.77Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 550.5 ±9.4

125NUTRONs

A+

Season APEX 329.7Event APEX 312.64Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11175Tidal Shock

Season APEX 98Event APEX 22.84Rank 33Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

172Northern Force

Season APEX 122.8Event APEX 26.36Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8708, 131, 571

/ 100 compat

Projected

444.8 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8708, 131, 571

Auto

38.7 9%

Teleop

243.0 55%

Endgame

161.2 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 125, 11175, 172

/ 100 compat

Projected

361.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 125, 11175, 172

Auto

57.6 16%

Teleop

224.5 63%

Endgame

71.6 20%

Strengths

· 125 anchors offense

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.47 · Blue 1.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score444.8pts

Blue projected score361.8pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample232alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 32%, blue 32%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 82.9
Score range: 302–505
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 832 vs event baseline 333.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

608.9Season APEX550.5

38.7Auto57.6

243Teleop224.5

161.2Endgame71.6

105Consistency158

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	86
teleop	204	316
endgame	78	90
foul	15	0
total	340	492

Result

Final score

340 – 492

Prediction missed · off by 117.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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