New England FIRST District Championship - Burns Division presented by GlobalFoundries

Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

279.04 – 483.47

7%93%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

182 – 442

Prediction correct · off by 69.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 412.8 ±10.4

4311Swampscott Currents

Season APEX 149.7Event APEX 90.81Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

20794H ALARM Robotics

Season APEX 180.7Event APEX 119.77Rank 29Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3623The Robomingos

Season APEX 82.4Event APEX 68.46Rank 44Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 675.8 ±9.8

5687The Outliers

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 268.54Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5112The Gongoliers

Season APEX 153Event APEX 50.91Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

133B.E.R.T.

Season APEX 209.2Event APEX 164.02Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4311, 2079, 3623

/ 100 compat

Projected

279 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4311, 2079, 3623

Auto

58.3 22%

Teleop

139.1 52%

Endgame

72.0 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5687, 5112, 133

/ 100 compat

Projected

483.5 pts

~3.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5687, 5112, 133

Auto

104.5 22%

Teleop

313.1 65%

Endgame

61.9 13%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1 · Blue 2.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score279pts

Blue projected score483.5pts

Red win probability7%

Event bonus sample232alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 44%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -204.4
Score range: 219–543
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 624 vs event baseline 333.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

412.8Season APEX675.8

58.3Auto104.5

139.1Teleop313.1

72Endgame61.9

93Consistency166

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	113
teleop	83	235
endgame	65	69
foul	20	25
total	182	442

Result

Final score

182 – 442

Prediction correct · off by 69.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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