Qualification · Qualification 45
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
319.11 – 310.71
53%47%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
283 – 388
Prediction missed · off by 56.7 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 512 ±9.8
Season APEX 269Event APEX 166.85Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 117.2Event APEX 99.49Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 125.8Event APEX 52.77Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 545.1 ±9.8
Season APEX 272.1Event APEX 152.55Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 79.01Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 91.1Event APEX 79.15Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 10254, 173, 151
66
/ 100 compatProjected
319.1 pts
~2.1 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 10254, 173, 151
Auto
48.4 15%
Teleop
185.5 58%
Endgame
88.3 27%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 68%
Supercharged: 30%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 2713, 78, 2170
62
/ 100 compatProjected
310.7 pts
~2.0 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 2713, 78, 2170
Auto
43.9 14%
Teleop
163.9 52%
Endgame
106.9 34%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 68%
Supercharged: 30%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.06 · Blue 1.99
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score319.1pts
Blue projected score310.7pts
Red win probability53%
Event bonus sample232alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 68%, blue 69%
Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 33%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 8.4
- Score range
- 251–379
- Upset likelihood
- 47%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-16
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
512Season APEX545.1
48.4Auto43.9
185.5Teleop163.9
88.3Endgame106.9
151Consistency101
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 60 | 54 |
| teleop | 111 | 263 |
| endgame | 97 | 71 |
| foul | 15 | 0 |
| total | 283 | 388 |
Result
Final score
283 – 388
Prediction missed · off by 56.7 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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