Qualification · Qualification 44
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
276.04 – 357.28
27%73%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
281 – 264
Prediction missed · off by 49.1 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 393.5 ±10.4
Season APEX 112.3Event APEX 58.46Rank 43Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 135.2Event APEX 105.38Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 146Event APEX 112.2Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 612.6 ±9.8
Season APEX 128.1Event APEX 106.22Rank 37Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 247.1Event APEX 132.07Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 118.99Rank 40Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 2876, 1512, 8709
62
/ 100 compatProjected
276 pts
~1.6 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 2876, 1512, 8709
Auto
49.2 18%
Teleop
151.5 56%
Endgame
69.0 26%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 69%
Supercharged: 31%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 3146, 1058, 4905
61
/ 100 compatProjected
357.3 pts
~2.5 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 3146, 1058, 4905
Auto
29.3 8%
Teleop
221.9 63%
Endgame
100.3 29%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 69%
Supercharged: 31%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.56 · Blue 2.5
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score276pts
Blue projected score357.3pts
Red win probability27%
Event bonus sample232alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 69%, blue 71%
Supercharged bonusred 31%, blue 30%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -81.2
- Score range
- 216–417
- Upset likelihood
- 27%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
393.5Season APEX612.6
49.2Auto29.3
151.5Teleop221.9
69Endgame100.3
152Consistency46
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 47 | 48 |
| teleop | 165 | 175 |
| endgame | 69 | 41 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 281 | 264 |
Result
Final score
281 – 264
Prediction missed · off by 49.1 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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