New England FIRST District Championship - Burns Division presented by GlobalFoundries

Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

323.54 – 129.44

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

292 – 63

Prediction correct · off by 49 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 516.1 ±9.3

9644NEIA Robotics

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 73.61Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2067Apple Pi

Season APEX 260Event APEX 180.73Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3654TechTigers

Season APEX 82Event APEX 69.2Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 310.7 ±10.4

9710Discovery Polybotz

Season APEX 109Event APEX 28.98Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3958Schrodinger's Cat

Season APEX 77Event APEX 11.68Rank 48Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7127LongMetal Robotics

Season APEX 124.7Event APEX 88.78Rank 34Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9644, 2067, 3654

/ 100 compat

Projected

323.5 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9644, 2067, 3654

Auto

51.9 16%

Teleop

204.1 63%

Endgame

67.3 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9710, 3958, 7127

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.4 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9710, 3958, 7127

Auto

37.8 30%

Teleop

62.9 50%

Endgame

26.0 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.78 · Blue 1.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score323.5pts

Blue projected score129.4pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample232alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 29%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 194.1
Score range: 68–385
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 355 vs event baseline 339.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

516.1Season APEX310.7

51.9Auto37.8

204.1Teleop62.9

67.3Endgame26

76Consistency92

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	72	21
teleop	152	13
endgame	68	14
foul	0	15
total	292	63

Result

Final score

292 – 63

Prediction correct · off by 49 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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