Qualification · Qualification 42
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
346.37 – 500.77
13%87%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
361 – 492
Prediction correct · off by 11.7 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 649.4 ±9.3
Season APEX 301.4Event APEX 177.7Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 94.6Event APEX 34.17Rank 49Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 253.4Event APEX 134.5Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 668.2 ±8.8
Season APEX 234.3Event APEX 145.04Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 241.2Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 117.4Event APEX 114.53Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 195, 155, 1073
69
/ 100 compatProjected
346.4 pts
~1.3 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 195, 155, 1073
Auto
61.9 19%
Teleop
179.0 54%
Endgame
91.0 27%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 62%
Supercharged: 40%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 8724, 1768, 175
89
/ 100 compatProjected
500.8 pts
~2.8 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 8724, 1768, 175
Auto
98.6 20%
Teleop
252.8 51%
Endgame
146.1 29%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 62%
Supercharged: 40%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.3 · Blue 2.8
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score346.4pts
Blue projected score500.8pts
Red win probability13%
Event bonus sample232alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 62%, blue 64%
Supercharged bonusred 40%, blue 40%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -154.4
- Score range
- 285–562
- Upset likelihood
- 13%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
649.4Season APEX668.2
61.9Auto98.6
179Teleop252.8
91Endgame146.1
117Consistency137
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 131 | 68 |
| teleop | 132 | 255 |
| endgame | 98 | 169 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 361 | 492 |
Result
Final score
361 – 492
Prediction correct · off by 11.7 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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