New England FIRST District Championship - Burns Division presented by GlobalFoundries

Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

489.7 – 267.54

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

461 – 212

Prediction correct · off by 42.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 663.4 ±9.4

125NUTRONs

A+

Season APEX 329.7Event APEX 310.41Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5112The Gongoliers

Season APEX 153Event APEX 53.93Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

20794H ALARM Robotics

Season APEX 180.7Event APEX 125.36Rank 29Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 378.8 ±9.8

348Norwell Robotics

Season APEX 147.4Event APEX 100.79Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10063S.C.R.A.P.

Season APEX 107.5Event APEX 81.82Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1729Team Inconceivable!

Season APEX 123.9Event APEX 84.93Rank 41Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 125, 5112, 2079

/ 100 compat

Projected

489.7 pts

~2.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 125, 5112, 2079

Auto

92.8 19%

Teleop

297.4 62%

Endgame

88.3 18%

Strengths

· 125 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 348, 10063, 1729

/ 100 compat

Projected

267.5 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 348, 10063, 1729

Auto

37.3 14%

Teleop

123.7 46%

Endgame

107.6 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.88 · Blue 1.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score489.7pts

Blue projected score267.5pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample232alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 36%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 222.2
Score range: 207–551
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 673 vs event baseline 336.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

663.4Season APEX378.8

92.8Auto37.3

297.4Teleop123.7

88.3Endgame107.6

136Consistency77

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	64	12
teleop	317	110
endgame	75	90
foul	5	0
total	461	212

Result

Final score

461 – 212

Prediction correct · off by 42.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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