New England FIRST District Championship - Burns Division presented by GlobalFoundries

Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

198.07 – 164.77

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

263 – 258

Prediction correct · off by 79.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 421.5 ±10.4

4925The Resistance

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 31.22Rank 47Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

509Red Storm

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 16.49Rank 31Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

133B.E.R.T.

Season APEX 209.2Event APEX 150.36Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 408.6 ±10.4

58The Riot Crew

Season APEX 128.7Event APEX 100.46Rank 45Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11175Tidal Shock

Season APEX 98Event APEX 6.36Rank 33Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

78AIR STRIKE

Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 57.95Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4925, 509, 133

/ 100 compat

Projected

198.1 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4925, 509, 133

Auto

32.7 17%

Teleop

97.2 51%

Endgame

60.4 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 58, 11175, 78

/ 100 compat

Projected

164.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 58, 11175, 78

Auto

12.5 7%

Teleop

60.8 36%

Endgame

97.1 57%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.14 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score198.1pts

Blue projected score164.8pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample232alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 33.3
Score range: 104–259
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 521 vs event baseline 338.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

421.5Season APEX408.6

32.7Auto12.5

97.2Teleop60.8

60.4Endgame97.1

206Consistency155

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	66
teleop	163	133
endgame	47	59
foul	15	0
total	263	258

Result

Final score

263 – 258

Prediction correct · off by 79.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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