New England FIRST District Championship - Burns Division presented by GlobalFoundries

Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

279.91 – 232.34

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

254 – 238

Prediction correct · off by 15.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 617.7 ±9.8

10910The Outlaws

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 53.42Rank 36Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4905Andromeda One

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 58.31Rank 40Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2713Red Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 272.1Event APEX 168.18Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 458.1 ±9.8

6324The Blue Devils

Season APEX 268.7Event APEX 146.13Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3958Schrodinger's Cat

Season APEX 77Event APEX 34.07Rank 48Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4925The Resistance

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 52.14Rank 47Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10910, 4905, 2713

/ 100 compat

Projected

279.9 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10910, 4905, 2713

Auto

43.2 16%

Teleop

146.0 53%

Endgame

86.9 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6324, 3958, 4925

/ 100 compat

Projected

232.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6324, 3958, 4925

Auto

51.1 23%

Teleop

120.3 53%

Endgame

55.5 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.25 · Blue 1.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score279.9pts

Blue projected score232.3pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample232alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 27%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 47.6
Score range: 167–345
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 492 vs event baseline 361.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

617.7Season APEX458.1

43.2Auto51.1

146Teleop120.3

86.9Endgame55.5

94Consistency122

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	38
teleop	149	117
endgame	74	83
foul	5	0
total	254	238

Result

Final score

254 – 238

Prediction correct · off by 15.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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