Qualification · Qualification 38
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
141.55 – 262.04
18%82%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
217 – 132
Prediction missed · off by 102.7 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 320.8 ±10.4
Season APEX 117.2Event APEX 90.02Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 126.6Event APEX 55.35Rank 35Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 77Event APEX -3.82Rank 48Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 272.5 ±10.4
Season APEX 82.4Event APEX 99.85Rank 44Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 112.3Event APEX 87.73Rank 43Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 74.46Rank 50Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 173, 230, 3958
38
/ 100 compatProjected
141.6 pts
~1.2 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 173, 230, 3958
Auto
24.5 16%
Teleop
50.8 34%
Endgame
75.5 50%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 57%
Supercharged: 24%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 3623, 2876, 8708
60
/ 100 compatProjected
262 pts
~2.4 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 3623, 2876, 8708
Auto
45.3 18%
Teleop
141.3 55%
Endgame
69.3 27%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 57%
Supercharged: 24%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.2 · Blue 2.44
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score141.6pts
Blue projected score262pts
Red win probability18%
Event bonus sample232alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 57%, blue 56%
Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 23%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -120.5
- Score range
- 81–323
- Upset likelihood
- 18%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
320.8Season APEX272.5
24.5Auto45.3
50.8Teleop141.3
75.5Endgame69.3
182Consistency156
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 23 | 13 |
| teleop | 148 | 77 |
| endgame | 46 | 37 |
| foul | 0 | 5 |
| total | 217 | 132 |
Result
Final score
217 – 132
Prediction missed · off by 102.7 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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