New England FIRST District Championship - Burns Division presented by GlobalFoundries

Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

193.53 – 238.89

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

97 – 398

Prediction correct · off by 127.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 358.7 ±10.4

10910The Outlaws

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 48.63Rank 36Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7127LongMetal Robotics

Season APEX 124.7Event APEX 103.48Rank 34Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

151Tough Techs

Season APEX 125.8Event APEX 41.42Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 558.1 ±9.3

8724Mayhem

Season APEX 234.3Event APEX 142.24Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4311Swampscott Currents

Season APEX 149.7Event APEX 53.69Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9644NEIA Robotics

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 42.96Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10910, 7127, 151

/ 100 compat

Projected

193.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10910, 7127, 151

Auto

24.5 13%

Teleop

90.2 49%

Endgame

69.9 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8724, 4311, 9644

/ 100 compat

Projected

238.9 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8724, 4311, 9644

Auto

64.9 28%

Teleop

120.5 52%

Endgame

45.9 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.66 · Blue 2.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score193.5pts

Blue projected score238.9pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample232alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 34%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -45.4
Score range: 133–300
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 495 vs event baseline 341.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

358.7Season APEX558.1

24.5Auto64.9

90.2Teleop120.5

69.9Endgame45.9

137Consistency123

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	27
teleop	35	236
endgame	34	130
foul	0	5
total	97	398

Result

Final score

97 – 398

Prediction correct · off by 127.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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