New England FIRST District Championship - Burns Division presented by GlobalFoundries

Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

590.01 – 306.3

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

548 – 306

Prediction correct · off by 21.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 846.6 ±8.7

2370IBOTS

Season APEX 260.9Event APEX 145.02Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2713Red Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 272.1Event APEX 160.68Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5687The Outliers

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 284.31Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 519.7 ±9.8

9710Discovery Polybotz

Season APEX 109Event APEX 43.8Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8709Pathfinder Tech

Season APEX 146Event APEX 95.31Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5813Morpheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 167.19Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2370, 2713, 5687

/ 100 compat

Projected

590 pts

~3.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2370, 2713, 5687

Auto

99.9 17%

Teleop

324.5 56%

Endgame

158.0 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 40%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9710, 8709, 5813

/ 100 compat

Projected

306.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9710, 8709, 5813

Auto

61.8 21%

Teleop

167.5 56%

Endgame

67.3 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 40%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 3.06 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score590pts

Blue projected score306.3pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample232alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 72%

Supercharged bonusred 40%, blue 34%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 283.7
Score range: 246–650
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 854 vs event baseline 335.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

846.6Season APEX519.7

99.9Auto61.8

324.5Teleop167.5

158Endgame67.3

117Consistency70

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	126	58
teleop	324	182
endgame	98	66
foul	0	0
total	548	306

Result

Final score

548 – 306

Prediction correct · off by 21.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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