New England FIRST District Championship - Burns Division presented by GlobalFoundries

Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

329.05 – 356.49

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

336 – 304

Prediction missed · off by 29.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 521.3 ±9.4

172Northern Force

Season APEX 122.8Event APEX 39.59Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3654TechTigers

Season APEX 82Event APEX 67.96Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 221.5Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 481.9 ±9.8

8567Team Ultraviolet

Season APEX 93.2Event APEX 25.44Rank 46Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2067Apple Pi

Season APEX 260Event APEX 202.17Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

58The Riot Crew

Season APEX 128.7Event APEX 128.88Rank 45Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 172, 3654, 1768

/ 100 compat

Projected

329.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 172, 3654, 1768

Auto

59.9 18%

Teleop

168.8 52%

Endgame

98.6 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8567, 2067, 58

/ 100 compat

Projected

356.5 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8567, 2067, 58

Auto

44.0 13%

Teleop

223.0 64%

Endgame

80.4 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.86 · Blue 2.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score329.1pts

Blue projected score356.5pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample232alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 32%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -27.4
Score range: 269–416
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 640 vs event baseline 335.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

521.3Season APEX481.9

59.9Auto44

168.8Teleop223

98.6Endgame80.4

191Consistency87

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	98	32
teleop	200	149
endgame	33	123
foul	5	0
total	336	304

Result

Final score

336 – 304

Prediction missed · off by 29.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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