Qualification · Qualification 33
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
302.31 – 413.48
20%80%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
229 – 239
Prediction correct · off by 123.9 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 502 ±9.8
Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 82.83Rank 40Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 147.4Event APEX 123.28Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 117.2Event APEX 96.2Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 572.5 ±9.8
Season APEX 209.2Event APEX 193.88Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 268.7Event APEX 142.23Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 94.6Event APEX 77.37Rank 49Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4905, 348, 173
60
/ 100 compatProjected
302.3 pts
~1.4 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 4905, 348, 173
Auto
20.5 7%
Teleop
183.0 60%
Endgame
99.3 33%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 70%
Supercharged: 27%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 133, 6324, 155
83
/ 100 compatProjected
413.5 pts
~2.6 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 133, 6324, 155
Auto
95.8 23%
Teleop
214.5 52%
Endgame
100.9 25%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 70%
Supercharged: 27%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.39 · Blue 2.56
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score302.3pts
Blue projected score413.5pts
Red win probability20%
Event bonus sample232alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 70%, blue 58%
Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 36%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -111.2
- Score range
- 241–474
- Upset likelihood
- 20%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
502Season APEX572.5
20.5Auto95.8
183Teleop214.5
99.3Endgame100.9
167Consistency201
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 27 | 43 |
| teleop | 122 | 140 |
| endgame | 75 | 51 |
| foul | 5 | 5 |
| total | 229 | 239 |
Result
Final score
229 – 239
Prediction correct · off by 123.9 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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