Qualification · Qualification 32
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
236.89 – 161.11
72%28%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
308 – 173
Prediction correct · off by 41.5 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 424 ±10.4
Season APEX 124.7Event APEX 91.14Rank 34Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 117.4Event APEX 102.81Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 42.94Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 287.5 ±10.4
Season APEX 77Event APEX 4.18Rank 48Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 82.4Event APEX 73.21Rank 44Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 128.1Event APEX 83.72Rank 37Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 7127, 175, 78
45
/ 100 compatProjected
236.9 pts
~2.4 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 7127, 175, 78
Auto
-7.6 0%
Teleop
126.1 55%
Endgame
112.8 49%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 67%
Supercharged: 26%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 3958, 3623, 3146
44
/ 100 compatProjected
161.1 pts
~1.4 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 3958, 3623, 3146
Auto
19.2 12%
Teleop
98.1 62%
Endgame
40.7 26%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 67%
Supercharged: 26%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.39 · Blue 1.35
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score236.9pts
Blue projected score161.1pts
Red win probability72%
Event bonus sample232alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 67%, blue 53%
Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 24%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 75.8
- Score range
- 99–299
- Upset likelihood
- 28%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-16
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
424Season APEX287.5
-7.6Auto19.2
126.1Teleop98.1
112.8Endgame40.7
135Consistency126
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 79 | 34 |
| teleop | 138 | 74 |
| endgame | 91 | 65 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 308 | 173 |
Result
Final score
308 – 173
Prediction correct · off by 41.5 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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