Qualification · Qualification 31
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
240.23 – 211.42
59%41%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
399 – 122
Prediction correct · off by 124.1 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 589.6 ±9.8
Season APEX 135.2Event APEX 44.85Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 301.4Event APEX 159.11Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 153Event APEX 36.27Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 377.6 ±9.8
Season APEX 91.1Event APEX 85.3Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 69.49Rank 47Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 56.63Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 1512, 195, 5112
56
/ 100 compatProjected
240.2 pts
~2.3 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 1512, 195, 5112
Auto
64.5 28%
Teleop
118.6 52%
Endgame
46.8 20%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 69%
Supercharged: 37%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 2170, 4925, 9644
45
/ 100 compatProjected
211.4 pts
~1.7 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 2170, 4925, 9644
Auto
32.9 16%
Teleop
143.5 72%
Endgame
23.1 12%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 69%
Supercharged: 37%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.26 · Blue 1.68
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score240.2pts
Blue projected score211.4pts
Red win probability59%
Event bonus sample232alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 69%, blue 54%
Supercharged bonusred 37%, blue 30%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 28.8
- Score range
- 149–302
- Upset likelihood
- 41%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
589.6Season APEX377.6
64.5Auto32.9
118.6Teleop143.5
46.8Endgame23.1
128Consistency134
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 92 | 20 |
| teleop | 189 | 61 |
| endgame | 118 | 41 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 399 | 122 |
Result
Final score
399 – 122
Prediction correct · off by 124.1 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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