New England FIRST District Championship - Burns Division presented by GlobalFoundries

Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

303.03 – 345.38

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

276 – 265

Prediction missed · off by 53.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 545.2 ±9.8

1729Team Inconceivable!

Season APEX 123.9Event APEX 57.86Rank 41Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

131CHAOS

Season APEX 268.3Event APEX 188.76Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5112The Gongoliers

Season APEX 153Event APEX 56.41Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 504 ±9.8

2067Apple Pi

Season APEX 260Event APEX 188.45Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11175Tidal Shock

Season APEX 98Event APEX 57.1Rank 33Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8709Pathfinder Tech

Season APEX 146Event APEX 99.83Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1729, 131, 5112

/ 100 compat

Projected

303 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1729, 131, 5112

Auto

52.3 18%

Teleop

154.1 52%

Endgame

90.6 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2067, 11175, 8709

/ 100 compat

Projected

345.4 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2067, 11175, 8709

Auto

66.5 19%

Teleop

190.4 55%

Endgame

87.4 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.73 · Blue 2.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score303pts

Blue projected score345.4pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample232alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 31%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -42.4
Score range: 238–410
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 541 vs event baseline 361.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

545.2Season APEX504

52.3Auto66.5

154.1Teleop190.4

90.6Endgame87.4

122Consistency108

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	61
teleop	141	140
endgame	95	64
foul	0	0
total	276	265

Result

Final score

276 – 265

Prediction missed · off by 53.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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