Qualification · Qualification 29
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
28.97 – 292.52
4%96%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
173 – 461
Prediction correct · off by 156.3 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 303.5 ±10.4
Season APEX 93.2Event APEX -12.51Rank 46Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 112.3Event APEX 43.2Rank 43Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 98Event APEX -1.72Rank 33Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 633 ±9.3
Season APEX 253.4Event APEX 98.93Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 107.5Event APEX 59.04Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 272.1Event APEX 134.55Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 8567, 2876, 11175
14
/ 100 compatProjected
29 pts
~0.9 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 8567, 2876, 11175
Auto
-0.5 0%
Teleop
-2.6 0%
Endgame
27.2 100%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 56%
Supercharged: 23%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 1073, 10063, 2713
59
/ 100 compatProjected
292.5 pts
~3.1 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 1073, 10063, 2713
Auto
45.3 16%
Teleop
170.5 59%
Endgame
75.3 26%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 56%
Supercharged: 23%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.87 · Blue 3.07
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score29pts
Blue projected score292.5pts
Red win probability4%
Event bonus sample232alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 56%, blue 72%
Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 41%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -263.5
- Score range
- -33–355
- Upset likelihood
- 4%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
303.5Season APEX633
-0.5Auto45.3
-2.6Teleop170.5
27.2Endgame75.3
210Consistency96
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 12 | 55 |
| teleop | 87 | 257 |
| endgame | 54 | 144 |
| foul | 20 | 5 |
| total | 173 | 461 |
Result
Final score
173 – 461
Prediction correct · off by 156.3 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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