New England FIRST District Championship - Burns Division presented by GlobalFoundries

Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

309.22 – 362.23

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

184 – 411

Prediction correct · off by 87 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 388.5 ±10.4

3654TechTigers

Season APEX 82Event APEX 94.28Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

151Tough Techs

Season APEX 125.8Event APEX 80.18Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

20794H ALARM Robotics

Season APEX 180.7Event APEX 134.76Rank 29Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 654.6 ±9.3

571Paragon Robotics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 222.87Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

172Northern Force

Season APEX 122.8Event APEX 22.24Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10254Regal Seagulls

Season APEX 269Event APEX 117.12Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3654, 151, 2079

/ 100 compat

Projected

309.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3654, 151, 2079

Auto

35.9 12%

Teleop

169.1 55%

Endgame

104.2 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 571, 172, 10254

/ 100 compat

Projected

362.2 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 571, 172, 10254

Auto

40.1 11%

Teleop

186.5 53%

Endgame

127.7 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.58 · Blue 2.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score309.2pts

Blue projected score362.2pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample232alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -53
Score range: 247–424
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 595 vs event baseline 345.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

388.5Season APEX654.6

35.9Auto40.1

169.1Teleop186.5

104.2Endgame127.7

175Consistency193

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	90
teleop	87	224
endgame	39	82
foul	0	15
total	184	411

Result

Final score

184 – 411

Prediction correct · off by 87 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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