New England FIRST District Championship - Burns Division presented by GlobalFoundries

Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

501.42 – 377.38

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

691 – 407

Prediction correct · off by 109.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 836.8 ±8.1

125NUTRONs

A+

Season APEX 329.7Event APEX 270.79Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1058PVC Pirates

Season APEX 247.1Event APEX 85.61Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2067Apple Pi

Season APEX 260Event APEX 145.02Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 603.4 ±9.3

5813Morpheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 152.25Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8708Ov3R1y K0Mp13X

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 65.34Rank 50Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2370IBOTS

Season APEX 260.9Event APEX 159.79Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 125, 1058, 2067

/ 100 compat

Projected

501.4 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 125, 1058, 2067

Auto

96.4 19%

Teleop

302.9 61%

Endgame

96.4 19%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 44%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5813, 8708, 2370

/ 100 compat

Projected

377.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5813, 8708, 2370

Auto

75.3 20%

Teleop

186.5 50%

Endgame

112.2 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 44%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.82 · Blue 1.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score501.4pts

Blue projected score377.4pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample232alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 44%, blue 29%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 124
Score range: 316–562
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1098 vs event baseline 337.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

836.8Season APEX603.4

96.4Auto75.3

302.9Teleop186.5

96.4Endgame112.2

170Consistency154

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	100	77
teleop	435	186
endgame	156	134
foul	0	10
total	691	407

Result

Final score

691 – 407

Prediction correct · off by 109.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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