New England FIRST District Championship - Burns Division presented by GlobalFoundries

Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

349.75 – 291.64

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

372 – 313

Prediction correct · off by 21.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 611.6 ±9.3

131CHAOS

Season APEX 268.3Event APEX 181.16Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8724Mayhem

Season APEX 234.3Event APEX 115.03Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9710Discovery Polybotz

Season APEX 109Event APEX 53.56Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 571.4 ±9.8

5000HAMMERHEADS

A+

Season APEX 321.8Event APEX 227.37Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

509Red Storm

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 5.96Rank 31Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4311Swampscott Currents

Season APEX 149.7Event APEX 58.31Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 131, 8724, 9710

/ 100 compat

Projected

349.8 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 131, 8724, 9710

Auto

61.0 18%

Teleop

179.8 52%

Endgame

104.2 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 45%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5000, 509, 4311

/ 100 compat

Projected

291.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5000, 509, 4311

Auto

39.1 14%

Teleop

161.9 56%

Endgame

88.2 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 45%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.55 · Blue 1.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score349.8pts

Blue projected score291.6pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample232alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 74%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 45%, blue 31%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 58.1
Score range: 231–411
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 685 vs event baseline 337.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

611.6Season APEX571.4

61Auto39.1

179.8Teleop161.9

104.2Endgame88.2

63Consistency181

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	66	55
teleop	195	111
endgame	111	147
foul	0	0
total	372	313

Result

Final score

372 – 313

Prediction correct · off by 21.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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