New England FIRST District Championship - Burns Division presented by GlobalFoundries

Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

403.84 – 285.6

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

360 – 371

Prediction missed · off by 64.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 526.7 ±9.8

78AIR STRIKE

Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 66.85Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

571Paragon Robotics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 223.43Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3654TechTigers

Season APEX 82Event APEX 113.56Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 546.8 ±9.3

1073The Force Team

Season APEX 253.4Event APEX 82.91Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8709Pathfinder Tech

Season APEX 146Event APEX 66.03Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

348Norwell Robotics

Season APEX 147.4Event APEX 136.66Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 78, 571, 3654

/ 100 compat

Projected

403.8 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 78, 571, 3654

Auto

77.2 19%

Teleop

192.4 47%

Endgame

138.9 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1073, 8709, 348

/ 100 compat

Projected

285.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1073, 8709, 348

Auto

67.1 23%

Teleop

156.8 55%

Endgame

63.3 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.66 · Blue 1.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score403.8pts

Blue projected score285.6pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample232alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 74%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 38%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 118.2
Score range: 224–466
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 731 vs event baseline 343.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

526.7Season APEX546.8

77.2Auto67.1

192.4Teleop156.8

138.9Endgame63.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	5	48
teleop	206	220
endgame	139	88
foul	10	15
total	360	371

Result

Final score

360 – 371

Prediction missed · off by 64.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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