Qualification · Qualification 22
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
372.33 – 416.41
37%63%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
365 – 525
Prediction correct · off by 58 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 672 ±9.3
Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 141.74Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 272.1Event APEX 147.77Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 135.2Event APEX 82.82Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 606.6 ±9.4
Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 206.39Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 165.4Event APEX 116.43Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 124.7Event APEX 93.59Rank 34Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 5813, 2713, 1512
72
/ 100 compatProjected
372.3 pts
~1.8 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 5813, 2713, 1512
Auto
60.9 16%
Teleop
204.5 54%
Endgame
116.7 31%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 71%
Supercharged: 38%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 1768, 236, 7127
78
/ 100 compatProjected
416.4 pts
~2.3 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 1768, 236, 7127
Auto
69.7 17%
Teleop
215.6 52%
Endgame
130.7 31%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 71%
Supercharged: 38%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.84 · Blue 2.27
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score372.3pts
Blue projected score416.4pts
Red win probability37%
Event bonus sample232alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 71%, blue 65%
Supercharged bonusred 38%, blue 33%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -44.1
- Score range
- 311–477
- Upset likelihood
- 37%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-16
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
672Season APEX606.6
60.9Auto69.7
204.5Teleop215.6
116.7Endgame130.7
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 49 | 78 |
| teleop | 183 | 289 |
| endgame | 133 | 143 |
| foul | 0 | 15 |
| total | 365 | 525 |
Result
Final score
365 – 525
Prediction correct · off by 58 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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