New England FIRST District Championship - Burns Division presented by GlobalFoundries

Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

98.53 – 250.43

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

236 – 196

Prediction missed · off by 96 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 444.8 ±9.8

11175Tidal Shock

Season APEX 98Event APEX -19.71Rank 33Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10254Regal Seagulls

Season APEX 269Event APEX 75.86Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8708Ov3R1y K0Mp13X

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 42.38Rank 50Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 505.8 ±9.8

1058PVC Pirates

Season APEX 247.1Event APEX 93.77Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9710Discovery Polybotz

Season APEX 109Event APEX 76.03Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4311Swampscott Currents

Season APEX 149.7Event APEX 80.63Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11175, 10254, 8708

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11175, 10254, 8708

Auto

33.3 35%

Teleop

52.1 54%

Endgame

10.6 11%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1058, 9710, 4311

/ 100 compat

Projected

250.4 pts

~2.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1058, 9710, 4311

Auto

54.9 22%

Teleop

116.2 46%

Endgame

79.3 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.14 · Blue 2.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score98.5pts

Blue projected score250.4pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample232alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 38%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -151.9
Score range: 37–312
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 432 vs event baseline 345.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

444.8Season APEX505.8

33.3Auto54.9

52.1Teleop116.2

10.6Endgame79.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	33
teleop	119	115
endgame	87	33
foul	0	15
total	236	196

Result

Final score

236 – 196

Prediction missed · off by 96 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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