New England FIRST District Championship - Burns Division presented by GlobalFoundries

Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

429.42 – 167.91

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

445 – 215

Prediction correct · off by 31.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 531.2 ±9.8

3623The Robomingos

Season APEX 82.4Event APEX 42.19Rank 44Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5687The Outliers

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 293.99Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1512The Big Red

Season APEX 135.2Event APEX 93.24Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 332.7 ±10.4

2876DevilBotz

Season APEX 112.3Event APEX 73.01Rank 43Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

155The TechnoNuts

Season APEX 94.6Event APEX 32.16Rank 49Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

151Tough Techs

Season APEX 125.8Event APEX 62.74Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3623, 5687, 1512

/ 100 compat

Projected

429.4 pts

~2.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3623, 5687, 1512

Auto

80.6 19%

Teleop

251.9 60%

Endgame

88.0 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2876, 155, 151

/ 100 compat

Projected

167.9 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2876, 155, 151

Auto

38.9 24%

Teleop

69.1 43%

Endgame

53.2 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.93 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score429.4pts

Blue projected score167.9pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample232alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 35%, blue 27%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 261.5
Score range: 103–494
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 660 vs event baseline 361.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

531.2Season APEX332.7

80.6Auto38.9

251.9Teleop69.1

88Endgame53.2

116Consistency118

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	118	27
teleop	253	96
endgame	74	92
foul	0	0
total	445	215

Result

Final score

445 – 215

Prediction correct · off by 31.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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