New England FIRST District Championship - Burns Division presented by GlobalFoundries

Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

229.97 – 295.86

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

375 – 302

Prediction missed · off by 75.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 610.5 ±9.3

6324The Blue Devils

Season APEX 268.7Event APEX 115.76Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8724Mayhem

Season APEX 234.3Event APEX 81Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10063S.C.R.A.P.

Season APEX 107.5Event APEX 33.21Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 538.8 ±9.8

151Tough Techs

Season APEX 125.8Event APEX 81.94Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2067Apple Pi

Season APEX 260Event APEX 142.73Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5112The Gongoliers

Season APEX 153Event APEX 71.19Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6324, 8724, 10063

/ 100 compat

Projected

230 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6324, 8724, 10063

Auto

44.6 19%

Teleop

106.7 46%

Endgame

82.4 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 39%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 151, 2067, 5112

/ 100 compat

Projected

295.9 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 151, 2067, 5112

Auto

64.9 22%

Teleop

168.5 58%

Endgame

56.7 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 39%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.7 · Blue 2.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score230pts

Blue projected score295.9pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample232alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 39%, blue 32%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -65.9
Score range: 168–358
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 677 vs event baseline 345.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

610.5Season APEX538.8

44.6Auto64.9

106.7Teleop168.5

82.4Endgame56.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	97	50
teleop	189	176
endgame	89	76
foul	0	0
total	375	302

Result

Final score

375 – 302

Prediction missed · off by 75.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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