New England FIRST District Championship - Burns Division presented by GlobalFoundries

Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

488.39 – 317.5

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

473 – 313

Prediction correct · off by 9.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 533.4 ±9.8

2170Galvanized Guardians

Season APEX 91.1Event APEX 67.15Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5687The Outliers

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 251.8Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

58The Riot Crew

Season APEX 128.7Event APEX 169.44Rank 45Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 508.5 ±9.8

172Northern Force

Season APEX 122.8Event APEX 40.03Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

175Buzz Robotics

Season APEX 117.4Event APEX 100.55Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

131CHAOS

Season APEX 268.3Event APEX 176.92Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2170, 5687, 58

/ 100 compat

Projected

488.4 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2170, 5687, 58

Auto

78.7 16%

Teleop

265.6 54%

Endgame

149.1 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 172, 175, 131

/ 100 compat

Projected

317.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 172, 175, 131

Auto

24.8 8%

Teleop

144.1 45%

Endgame

149.5 47%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.79 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score488.4pts

Blue projected score317.5pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample232alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 35%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 170.9
Score range: 256–550
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 786 vs event baseline 342.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

533.4Season APEX508.5

78.7Auto24.8

265.6Teleop144.1

149.1Endgame149.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	71	36
teleop	278	158
endgame	124	119
foul	0	0
total	473	313

Result

Final score

473 – 313

Prediction correct · off by 9.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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