New England FIRST District Championship - Burns Division presented by GlobalFoundries

Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

468.59 – 194.58

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

552 – 196

Prediction correct · off by 42.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 784.3 ±8.8

8709Pathfinder Tech

Season APEX 146Event APEX 77.55Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 178.22Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5000HAMMERHEADS

A+

Season APEX 321.8Event APEX 212.82Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 307 ±10.4

3623The Robomingos

Season APEX 82.4Event APEX 67.96Rank 44Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7127LongMetal Robotics

Season APEX 124.7Event APEX 107.13Rank 34Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

509Red Storm

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 19.49Rank 31Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8709, 1768, 5000

/ 100 compat

Projected

468.6 pts

~3.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8709, 1768, 5000

Auto

76.1 16%

Teleop

248.7 53%

Endgame

144.1 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 38%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3623, 7127, 509

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.6 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3623, 7127, 509

Auto

38.2 20%

Teleop

105.0 54%

Endgame

52.4 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 38%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 3.04 · Blue 0.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score468.6pts

Blue projected score194.6pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample232alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 38%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 274
Score range: 134–530
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 748 vs event baseline 340.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

784.3Season APEX307

76.1Auto38.2

248.7Teleop105

144.1Endgame52.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	127	3
teleop	303	113
endgame	122	65
foul	0	15
total	552	196

Result

Final score

552 – 196

Prediction correct · off by 42.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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