Qualification · Qualification 16
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
201.37 – 371.61
11%89%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
399 – 350
Prediction missed · off by 109.6 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 506.3 ±9.8
Season APEX 149.7Event APEX 18.82Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 147.4Event APEX 74.07Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 209.2Event APEX 108.48Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 730.4 ±9.3
Season APEX 247.1Event APEX 105.27Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 86.32Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 301.4Event APEX 180.02Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4311, 348, 133
43
/ 100 compatProjected
201.4 pts
~1.3 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 4311, 348, 133
Auto
19.9 10%
Teleop
77.1 38%
Endgame
106.9 52%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 68%
Supercharged: 38%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 1058, 78, 195
71
/ 100 compatProjected
371.6 pts
~2.9 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 1058, 78, 195
Auto
55.5 15%
Teleop
187.4 50%
Endgame
130.7 35%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 68%
Supercharged: 38%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.29 · Blue 2.88
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score201.4pts
Blue projected score371.6pts
Red win probability11%
Event bonus sample232alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 68%, blue 72%
Supercharged bonusred 38%, blue 35%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -170.2
- Score range
- 140–433
- Upset likelihood
- 11%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
506.3Season APEX730.4
19.9Auto55.5
77.1Teleop187.4
106.9Endgame130.7
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 86 | 82 |
| teleop | 216 | 172 |
| endgame | 92 | 96 |
| foul | 5 | 0 |
| total | 399 | 350 |
Result
Final score
399 – 350
Prediction missed · off by 109.6 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
Watch right here, no need to leave the page.