Qualification · Qualification 15
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
324.03 – 252.43
71%29%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
413 – 189
Prediction correct · off by 76.2 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 531.5 ±9.3
Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 71.76Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 190.37Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 94.6Event APEX 61.9Rank 49Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 336.4 ±10.4
Season APEX 165.4Event APEX 125.51Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 61.22Rank 50Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 93.2Event APEX 65.7Rank 46Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 9644, 571, 155
67
/ 100 compatProjected
324 pts
~2.3 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 9644, 571, 155
Auto
62.2 20%
Teleop
184.5 58%
Endgame
71.0 22%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 53%
Supercharged: 28%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 236, 8708, 8567
53
/ 100 compatProjected
252.4 pts
~1.4 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 236, 8708, 8567
Auto
33.9 13%
Teleop
112.3 44%
Endgame
109.3 43%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 53%
Supercharged: 28%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.25 · Blue 1.39
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score324pts
Blue projected score252.4pts
Red win probability71%
Event bonus sample232alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 53%, blue 55%
Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 24%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 71.6
- Score range
- 191–385
- Upset likelihood
- 29%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
531.5Season APEX336.4
62.2Auto33.9
184.5Teleop112.3
71Endgame109.3
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 66 | 45 |
| teleop | 241 | 100 |
| endgame | 91 | 44 |
| foul | 15 | 0 |
| total | 413 | 189 |
Result
Final score
413 – 189
Prediction correct · off by 76.2 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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