New England FIRST District Championship - Burns Division presented by GlobalFoundries

Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

302.74 – 194.29

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

80 – 217

Prediction missed · off by 122.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 314.5 ±10.4

9710Discovery Polybotz

Season APEX 109Event APEX 166Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10063S.C.R.A.P.

Season APEX 107.5Event APEX 82Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11175Tidal Shock

Season APEX 98Event APEX 54.74Rank 33Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 360.6 ±10.4

10910The Outlaws

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 6.29Rank 36Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

173RAGE Robotics ⚙️

Season APEX 117.2Event APEX 111.79Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1512The Big Red

Season APEX 135.2Event APEX 76.21Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9710, 10063, 11175

/ 100 compat

Projected

302.7 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9710, 10063, 11175

Auto

57.1 19%

Teleop

153.3 51%

Endgame

91.5 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10910, 173, 1512

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10910, 173, 1512

Auto

45.8 24%

Teleop

107.8 56%

Endgame

39.9 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.55 · Blue 1.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score302.7pts

Blue projected score194.3pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample232alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 108.5
Score range: 130–367
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 297 vs event baseline 355.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

314.5Season APEX360.6

57.1Auto45.8

153.3Teleop107.8

91.5Endgame39.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	39
teleop	33	111
endgame	28	67
foul	0	0
total	80	217

Result

Final score

80 – 217

Prediction missed · off by 122.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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