New England FIRST District Championship - Burns Division presented by GlobalFoundries

Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

244.58 – 293.89

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

653 – 235

Prediction missed · off by 233.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 730.5 ±8.8

125NUTRONs

A+

Season APEX 329.7Event APEX 123.26Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2713Red Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 272.1Event APEX 57.91Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

58The Riot Crew

Season APEX 128.7Event APEX 63.41Rank 45Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 485.2 ±9.8

172Northern Force

Season APEX 122.8Event APEX 61.14Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3146GRANBY GRUNTS

Season APEX 128.1Event APEX 145.94Rank 37Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8724Mayhem

Season APEX 234.3Event APEX 86.81Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 125, 2713, 58

/ 100 compat

Projected

244.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 125, 2713, 58

Auto

25.4 11%

Teleop

153.9 64%

Endgame

61.6 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 172, 3146, 8724

/ 100 compat

Projected

293.9 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 172, 3146, 8724

Auto

37.8 13%

Teleop

138.7 47%

Endgame

119.8 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.74 · Blue 2.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score244.6pts

Blue projected score293.9pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample232alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 35%, blue 35%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -49.3
Score range: 182–357
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 888 vs event baseline 348.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

730.5Season APEX485.2

25.4Auto37.8

153.9Teleop138.7

61.6Endgame119.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	66	34
teleop	386	123
endgame	201	73
foul	0	5
total	653	235

Result

Final score

653 – 235

Prediction missed · off by 233.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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