Qualification · Qualification 12
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
291.35 – 279.04
54%46%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
405 – 450
Prediction missed · off by 142.3 points
Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 685.8 ±9.8
Season APEX 126.6Event APEX 56.57Rank 35Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 72.57Rank 40Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 321.8Event APEX 162.21Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 531.8 ±9.8
Season APEX 180.7Event APEX 146.76Rank 29Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 91.1Event APEX 56.57Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 260Event APEX 75.71Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 230, 4905, 5000
59
/ 100 compatProjected
291.4 pts
~2.1 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 230, 4905, 5000
Auto
30.7 11%
Teleop
153.0 53%
Endgame
106.4 37%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 68%
Supercharged: 29%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 2079, 2170, 2067
60
/ 100 compatProjected
279 pts
~1.9 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 2079, 2170, 2067
Auto
45.8 16%
Teleop
133.4 48%
Endgame
99.8 36%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 68%
Supercharged: 29%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.06 · Blue 1.88
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score291.4pts
Blue projected score279pts
Red win probability54%
Event bonus sample232alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 68%, blue 59%
Supercharged bonusred 29%, blue 34%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 12.3
- Score range
- 218–352
- Upset likelihood
- 46%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-16
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
685.8Season APEX531.8
30.7Auto45.8
153Teleop133.4
106.4Endgame99.8
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 46 | 103 |
| teleop | 228 | 267 |
| endgame | 126 | 75 |
| foul | 5 | 5 |
| total | 405 | 450 |
Result
Final score
405 – 450
Prediction missed · off by 142.3 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
Watch right here, no need to leave the page.