New England FIRST District Championship - Burns Division presented by GlobalFoundries

Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

251.59 – 208.19

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

132 – 346

Prediction missed · off by 128.7 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 306.7 ±10.4

3958Schrodinger's Cat

Season APEX 77Event APEX 55.02Rank 48Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2876DevilBotz

Season APEX 112.3Event APEX 61.43Rank 43Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

175Buzz Robotics

Season APEX 117.4Event APEX 135.14Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 682.9 ±9.3

2370IBOTS

Season APEX 260.9Event APEX 102.29Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5112The Gongoliers

Season APEX 153Event APEX 30.76Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10254Regal Seagulls

Season APEX 269Event APEX 75.14Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3958, 2876, 175

/ 100 compat

Projected

251.6 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3958, 2876, 175

Auto

35.7 14%

Teleop

122.0 49%

Endgame

93.4 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2370, 5112, 10254

/ 100 compat

Projected

208.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2370, 5112, 10254

Auto

36.5 18%

Teleop

97.9 47%

Endgame

73.9 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.05 · Blue 1.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score251.6pts

Blue projected score208.2pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample232alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 72%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 34%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43.4
Score range: 143–317
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 478 vs event baseline 362.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

306.7Season APEX682.9

35.7Auto36.5

122Teleop97.9

93.4Endgame73.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	92
teleop	45	183
endgame	70	56
foul	0	15
total	132	346

Result

Final score

132 – 346

Prediction missed · off by 128.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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